‘If history repeats itself, and the
unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man be of learning from experience.’
- George Bernard Shaw
It is with some apprehension that I comment
on the work of Nassim Taleb and the idea of the Black Swan. The concept was
rigorously discussed in Taleb’s book of the same name published in 2007.
Taleb is a formidable and precise thinker
and since at present I only have a basic understanding of the nuances of the
Black Swan, I hope he will forgive me for any errors in my presentation of it.
The concept goes something like this:
